The Toronto Maple Leafs collapsed down the stretch, earning one regulation win in the final 14 games to fall out of playoff position, and the first reaction after the season was to bring in a new President of Hockey Operations, Brendan Shanahan. Off-Season Game Plan looks at what the Maple Leafs could do this summer to right the ship, though the early returns arent promising. Shanahan promised to review the organization before making any decisions and, as announced Thursday, the Maple Leafs decided that general manager Dave Nonis and head coach Randy Carlyle would be returning. Not only that, but Carlyle would be getting a contract extension (one year plus a team option for another, beyond next season). Oh, the Leafs fired three assistant coaches, so there will be organizational changes, but thats putting a lot of responsibility/blame on assistants. If the lesson to the players is supposed to be accountability, the Maple Leafs decision to fire underlings rather than decision makers didnt drive that message home. Nevertheless, it doesnt much matter what kind of message was trying to be sent. What matters is whether the Maple Leafs are likely to be a better (ie. playoff) team next season. Right now, it doesnt look promising and a big reason for that is Carlyles track record. Under Carlyle, Torontos possession stats are abysmal and the trend for Carlyle, going back to Anaheim, is a huge red flag. It doesnt mean that it cant be fixed. There is plenty of analytical work being done that reveals ways in which a team can improve possession, but there has not seemed to be any grasp from the Maple Leafs brass. When a team is mystified by their poor possession numbers, after pushing two of their best possession players out the door, the problems run deep. Carlyle didnt have any real concrete answers for what happened to the Maple Leafs last season, though he did recognize, early on, that the Leafs record was built on sand. Its one thing to recognize that there is a problem. Thats the first part. But fixing the problem is where coaching and management have to take responsibility. I suppose this is the point at which I could note that a team that bothered to spend the money it had budgeted for analytics might have some ideas about what went wrong with the team. Something more than mind-boggling because that doesnt offer even the slightest reason to be optimistic that they will be able to fix their problems going forward. It will be interesting to see which assistant coaches the Leafs target, and how they might improve those possession issues, but there will need to be a fundamental change in how the team plays or disappointment is sure to follow. When a team rides unsustainable percentages, thats asking for trouble. Maybe it holds long enough to get a team to the playoffs in a shortened 48-game schedule, or maybe the Leafs could have done it for another month and made it through the regular season finish line in 2013-2014, but thats a high-wire act. The teams that win consistently arent spending most of the game in their own end and steps need to be taken in order to change the Maple Leafs approach. The question for the Leafs in this offseason is whether those calling the shots are going to point those steps in the right direction. The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- Corsi, adjusted for zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates, hits, blocked shots, penalty differential and faceoffs. Generally, a replacement-level player is around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be around 70, stars will be over 80 and MVP candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby finished at the top of the 2013-2014 regular season ratings at 87.12. Salary cap information all comes from the indispensable www.capgeek.com. CF% = Corsi percentage (ie. percentage of 5-on-5 shot attempts), via www.extraskater.com. GM/COACH Dave Nonis/Randy Carlyle Returning Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Phil Kessel 81.16 82 37 43 80 44.1% $8.0M James van Riemsdyk 74.57 80 30 31 61 44.2% $4.25M Tyler Bozak 74.32 58 19 30 49 42.9% $4.2M Joffrey Lupul 70.73 69 22 22 44 42.5% $5.25M Nazem Kadri 69.83 78 20 30 50 45.3% $2.9M David Clarkson 59.31 60 5 6 11 42.4% $5.25M Colton Orr 52.21 54 0 0 0 39.1% $925K Free Agent Forwards Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Dave Bolland 70.29 23 8 4 12 44.1% UFA $3.375M Mason Raymond 67.35 82 19 26 45 44.2% UFA $1.0M Nikolai Kulemin 61.78 70 9 11 20 41.3% UFA $2.8M Peter Holland 59.31 39 5 5 10 42.9% RFA $870K Troy Bodie 58.49 47 3 7 10 43.0% UFA $600K Jay McClement 57.26 81 4 6 10 38.7% UFA $1.5M Carter Ashton 54.66 32 0 3 3 43.8% RFA $840K Over the past three seasons, Phil Kessel is tied for second in points, with 214, and fourth in goals, with 94. Sure, his game isnt the most well-rounded, but when seeking out problems with the Leafs, the play of one of the games elite offensive players ought to be way down the list. Furthermore, while his raw possession numbers are poor (he plays for Toronto, after all), his relative possession stats have been positive for six of the past seven seasons. James van Riemsdyk has taken a jump, at least in role, with Toronto, playing more than 20 minutes per game over the past two seasons. His 48 goals over the past two years ranks 16th and hes a 25-year-old signed to a very reasonable contract for the next four seasons. With Kessel and JvR anchoring the first line, the Leafs have their cornerstone pieces offensively. When the Leafs re-signed Tyler Bozak to a five-year, $21-million contract, there was plenty of criticism that followed and Bozak answered those critics with a career-best 19 goals and 49 points, despite missing 24 games with a couple of injuries. The bigger issue, however, is that Bozaks production was fueled by an unsustainably high on-ice shooting percentage, the kind of thing that frequently regresses; sometimes dramatically. Considering that Bozak is logging more than 20 minutes per game, he needs to be productive, but if those percentages dry up, whats left? Bozak scored 40 of his points at even-strength last year -- the same as Andrew Ladd, one more than Alex Ovechkin and Jakub Voracek -- but if that on-ice shooting percentage even falls to 9%, from 11.60% last season, then 40 even-strength points could turn into 30 without much else changing. Worse, if Kessel should somehow get hurt or see his own performance drop for any reason, there isnt much reason to believe that Bozak is a bona fide point producer without Kessel to carry him. In 2011-2012 and 2012-2013, Joffrey Lupul went on a tear, scoring 36 goals and 85 points in 82 games, a dramatic improvement on any previous numbers, then regression came back to bite him last season. Its not that 44 points in 69 games (0.69 per game) was somehow disappointing based on career norms or reasonable expectations for a second-line winger, but it was a pretty clear indication that Lupuls new norm isnt scoring better than a point-per-game. If the Leafs are prepared to make changes in the offseason, perhaps Lupul would be an appealing asset to for them to shop. For any Leafs that dont buy into the concept of regression, Nazem Kadri stands as a good recent example. After scoring 44 points in 48 games in 2012-2013 on the back of absurdly high on-ice shooting percentage, as a 22-year-old, Kadri drifted back to reality last season. Theres nothing inherently wrong with Kadris 50-point season in 2013-2014, only it serves to show how fickle percentages can be from one season to the next. The way to maximize Kadris production may be to have him centre Kessel and van Riemsdyk, but its also possible he may not yet be ready for that. Its hard to imagine a big-ticket free agent signing going wrong quicker than David Clarkson did for Toronto. Suspended for 10 games at the start of the season for coming off the bench to get a piece of Buffalo Sabres enforcer John Scott, Clarkson never caught up and his game disintegrated -- he finished the year with one goal and no assists in his last 22 games. Saddled with a contact that pays him more than $5-million per season through 2020, the Maple Leafs might as well figure out how to make Clarkson a useful player. He banged enough pucks in the net for New Jersey to generate all that free agent interest, but Clarkson pretty much has to wipe the slate clean and start fresh next season. Colton Orr is part of a dying breed, the one-dimensional heavyweight enforcer. Some of that can be seen in his waning pugilistic activity last season, fighting six times in 54 games -- half of the bouts coming against Montreals George Parros. In five seasons with the Leafs, Orr has eight goals and 13 points in 231 games, with bottom-of-the-barrel possession numbers. The only way to justify his spot is holding the belief that a traditional face-puncher on the fourth line is necessary in the NHL today. When he was pressed into more significant minutes, in December, 23-year-old Peter Holland was productive enough to warrant a spot in the lineup, but he was effectively buried. Even in a fourth-line role, though, Holland adds skill that may fit as more and more teams seek higher skill players further down the depth chart. 23-year-old winger Carter Ashton has yet to score a goal in 47 NHL games, but he played sparingly in 32 games with the Leafs last season, and was very productive (16 goals, seven assists) in 24 games with the Marlies. Hes still on the roster bubble, but could give them an inexpensive option on the fourth line. The thing about the Leafs is that they are going to have holes to fill up front. With Dave Bolland, Nikolai Kulemin and Mason Raymond heading for free agency, thats three spots in the top nine to be accounted for. Considering that the Leafs brought back Nonis and Carlyle, it would be something of a surprise if they didnt find a way to bring back Bolland, whose value to the team was trumpeted all season, especially while he was recovering from his ankle tendon injury. There are so many different directions that the Leafs could go to make the group better. Paul Stastny would be a big-ticket item, but Matt Moulson, Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky are all scoring wingers that could fit. If they are seeking a bargain, like Raymond last season, perhaps Pierre-Marc Bouchard would be a viable option. Even if the Maple Leafs focus on their own young forwards to round out the forward lines, it would come as no surprise if the Leafs went for veteran grit. Returning Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit Dion Phaneuf 67.75 80 8 23 31 40.8% $7.0M Morgan Rielly 65.35 73 2 25 27 44.5% $894K Carl Gunnarsson 61.01 80 3 14 17 40.1% $3.15M Tim Gleason 57.92 56 1 5 6 42.2% $4.0M Free Agent Defence Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class 13-14 Cap Hit Jake Gardiner 68.37 80 10 21 31 46.4% RFA $875K Cody Franson 67.31 79 5 28 33 44.9% RFA $2.0M Paul Ranger 65.97 53 6 8 14 42.3% UFA $1.0M Team captain Dion Phaneuf received a contract extenson that will pay him $7-million per season through 2020-2021, signed during a season in which he finished with a career-low scoring rate (31 points in 80 games, 0.39 ppg) to go along with possession stats that put him and partner Carl Gunnarsson in range with a couple of Sabres defencemen as the four regular blueliners with fewer than 41.0% of the 5-on-5 shot attempts when they were on the ice. Mitigating the situation for Phaneuf and Gunnarsson is that they faced the toughest assignments every night and, on a team with terrible possesion numbers, did so while starting a heavy percentage of shifts in the defensive zone. Basically, Phaneuf is getting overwhelmed and needs help. One of the great hopes for the future of the Maple Leafs blueline, Morgan Rielly, had a nice rookie season, showing flashes of brilliance and outstanding skating ability while being sheltered in his usage. The fifth overall pick in 2012, Rielly has a chance to take a big step forward, taking on more responsibility, provided that the coaching staff is willing to live with his defensive gaffes, recognizing that taking the lumps with young defencemen is part of the process. Carl Gunnarsson is surely an NHL defenceman. Whether hes a top-pair defenceman is an entirely different matter. Hes certainly on the low-end of possession metrics for defencemen playing big minutes over the past three seasons. To get better results, the first order of business could be to ease Gunnarssons quality of competition because he could not handle the assignments he faced last season. Brought in from Carolina to provide toughness and steady play on the back end, Tim Gleason didnt deliver appreciably better results and, after a bit of a surge in ice time in January and February, he was back down to 15 minutes per game by seasons end. With two years and $8-million left on his contract, Gleason is a buyout candidate, though it would come as no surprise if he returned in a depth role. A wonderful skater who can make some highlight-worthy blunders, Jake Gardiner seems to get considered as high-risk, rather than very effective. He has the best possession percentages among Toronto blueliners over the past three seasons, yet invariably does so against lesser competition. Its entirely possible that Gardiner isnt up to taking on tough defensive assignments, but given that Torontos top pair has been under siege, it might be time to thrust more responsibility upon Gardiner. Either that, or move him out, because thats the kind of esteem with which hes held in at least some corners of this organization. Cody Franson did score a career-high 33 points last season, but it wasnt nearly as impressive as 29 points in 45 games during 2012-2013, with more even strength points in 2012-2013. While Franson has typically not faced the toughest matchups, hes another who has tended towards positive possession numbers, at least in relative terms. If hes not part of the solution going forward, though, there is likely a bustling market for a 6-foot-5, 26-year-old, right-handed defenceman who can work the power play and log 20 minutes a night. Bringing in a bona fide top pair defenceman, to take some heat off Phaneuf, should be a priority, but its one thing to make that a priority and another to get it done. Teams dont surrender top-pair defencemen easily. Among free agents, Tom Gilbert, Anton Stralman, Matt Niskanen and Mark Fayne would all be upgrades on the current group (not saying much for a team that allowed 35.9 shots per game, but still). Returning Goaltenders Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Cap Hit Jonathan Bernier 78.69 55 26 19 7 2.69 .923 $2.9M Free Agent Goaltender Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Class 13-14 Cap Hit James Reimer 73.23 36 12 16 1 3.29 .911 RFA $1.8M The Maple Leafs made a bold move last summer, trading for Jonathan Bernier to be their goaltender, even though James Reimer and Ben Scrivens had both been very good in 2012-2013. Bernier responded well, taking on a starters workload for the first time in his career, posting a .922 save percentage. (Incidentally, that was the same as Scrivens and .002 below what Reimers save percentage was in 2012-2013.) When a 25-year-old posts a strong goaltending season, like Bernier, there is hope that its going to be the beginning of big things, but goaltenders -- even the best ones -- tend to fluctuate from season to season, so its going to be hard for Bernier to duplicate this relative success next season. If the Maple Leafs can improve their possession numbers, then that may help offset some anticipated regression in Berniers performance. Not surprisingly, with Bernier on the roster, James Reimer was eventually shuffled aside and figures to be a trade chip for the offseason. Theres no guarantee that Reimer is going to be a legit starting goaltender, but his .914 save percentage over the past four seasons puts him on the same level as Corey Crawford and Jonas Hiller, both of whom are likely to be starters next season. If Reimer is moved out, the Leafs would most likely focus on a clear backup, which should come relatively inexpensively. Justin Peters and Al Montoya are a couple options that were good in 2013-2014, would likely be inexpensive and not have expectations for significant playing time. Top Prospects Player Pos. Team/League Stats Matt Finn D Guelph (OHL) 14-47-61, +57, 66 GP Frederik Gauthier C Rimouski (QMJHL) 18-34-52, +19, 54 GP Andreas Johnson RW Frolunda (SHL) 15-9-24, -1, 44 GP Connor Brown RW Erie (OHL) 45-83-128, +44, 68 GP Petter Granberg D Toronto (AHL) 2-5-7, +19, 73 GP Josh Leivo LW Toronto (AHL) 23-19-42, +6, 59 GP Stuart Percy D Toronto (AHL) 4-21-25, +4, 71 GP Jerry DAmigo LW Toronto (AHL) 20-13-33, +10, 51 GP Greg McKegg C Toronto (AHL) 19-28-47, even, 65 GP Carter Verhaeghe C Niagara (OHL) 28-5482, -19, 65 GP Andrew MacWilliam D Toronto (AHL) 0-9-9, +3, 57 GP Hell likely need some time in the AHL, but puck-moving defenceman Matt Finn has enjoyed a dominant season on a powerhouse team. The second-round pick from 2012 does give another blueline power play option in the pipeline. The 21st overall pick in 2013, Frederik Gauthier is a big pivot who is considered to be a third-line centre in the making; the unspoken part of that projection is that Gauthier doesnt have the offensive upside to climb higher on the depth chart. The Leafs may have struck oil with their selection of Andreas Johnson, drafted in the seventh round last summer. Hes small, skilled and won the Rookie of the Year award in the Swedish League. Coming off a monster season in the OHL, Connor Brown was a sixth-round pick in 2012, and was able to produce even when he wasnt paired with Connor McDavid in Erie. Hell get a chance next season to see if his offence can carry to the American Hockey League. His offensive contributions are non-existent, but Petter Granberg has been working in a shutdown role and has been mentioned by Marlies coach Steve Spott as a prospect likely to be ready for the NHL next season. A third-round pick in 2011, Josh Leivo made a smooth transition to the pro game, Leivo didnt look out of place in a seven-game trial with the Leafs early in the season and could be a complementary scorer with the Leafs. Drafted 25th overall in 2011, Stuart Percy doesnt offer much sizzle, but is a heady defensive defenceman who may not be far off from challenging for a spot with the Leafs. Maybe after another year in the AHL. 23-year-old Jerry DAmigo has already logged 240 games in the AHL and while he scored more in 2013-2014, hes been used strictly as a checker and penalty-killer when called up to the NHL. Its easy enough to see that being his calling card if hes going to crack an NHL lineup. After a mediocre start to the year, Greg McKegg picked up the pace, scoring 37 points in his last 45 games of the year and getting a one-game reward in the NHL. The third-round pick in 2010 doesnt figure to be at the forefront among prospects for next season, but with strong AHL production, could earn a promotion. A third-round pick last summer, Carter Verhaeghes production took off, going from 44 to 82 points and making the 18-year-old one to keep tabs on for the future. Picked in the seventh round in 2008, 24-year-old Andrew MacWilliam is a bruising hitter, which likely endears him to the organization, but improved puck skills would help in his bid to climb the ladder. Maple Leafs advanced stats and player usage chart from Extra Skater DRAFT 8th - Kasperi Kapanen, Nick Ritchie, Nikolaj Ehlers. FREE AGENCY According to www.capgeek.com, the Maple Leafs have approximately $48.7M committed to the 2013-2014 salary cap for 12 players. Check out my possible Maple Leafs lineup for next season on Cap Geek here. Needs: Three top nine forwards, depth forwards, one top pair defenceman. What I said the Maple Leafs needed last year: One top six forward, one top nine forward, depth forwards, one top four defenceman. They added: Mason Raymond, David Clarkson, Dave Bolland, Troy Bodie, Morgan Rielly, Paul Ranger. TRADE MARKET Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson, Cody Franson, Jake Gardiner, James Reimer. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Cheap Dave Parker Jersey .J. - Henrik Lundqvist has done more than set a couple of franchise records for the New York Rangers this week. Wholesale Pirates Jerseys . -- Darrelle Revis says at least 26 teams called after he was released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. http://www.cheappiratesjerseys.com/ .C. -- Only two Syracuse teams have won their first 20 games, and C. Cheap Pirates Jerseys China . 4 jersey of former defenseman Rob Blake this coming season. The ceremony will take place prior to the Kings January 17 game against Anaheim. Cheap Barry Bonds Jersey . - The fiancee of former New England Patriots player Aaron Hernandez is set to ask a judge to throw out allegations that she lied to a grand jury.Despite a recent trip to Seattle, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman says expansion is not currently on the horizon for the league. In a one-hour interview with TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun on Friday, Bettman discussed a variety of topics, including expansion, outdoor games and changes to the NHL draft. When asked about his recently reported trip to Seattle with deputy commissioner Bill Daly, Bettman said the visit simply coincided with being on the west coast for a playoff game in Anaheim. "We had a few hours to kill, we were in the neighborhood, so I figured Id go to Seattle to find out what the building story was," Bettman told LeBrun. "We werent there campaigning, we werent asking for anything, and thats been misreported. Based on the level of interest were getting from lots of people in Seattle and a fair amount of uncertainty and confusion about the building, we decided Lets go find out for ourselves what the story is with the building. And theres no prospect of a building right now." Investor Chris Hansen currently holds the rights with the city of Seattle to build a new arena, however Hansen will not move ahead with the building process until he has secured an NBA franchise. Hansen is not pursuing an NHL team for the arena, but would like to have an NHL team as a tenant of the arena under another owner. "The sense I get is he doesnt want to build a building just to have a tenant," Bettman said. "And since he seems to have things tied up with the city for the next three years, give or take, theres no certainty about a building." Bettmans takeaway from the Seattle tour; that "the possibility of a new arena is at best uncertain." Bettman said he is also aware of the arena being built in Quebec City, as well as the plans for an MGM Arena in Las Vegas, however expansion for his league currently remains off the table. "Things are popping up, but were not in an expansion process. Could we get to one at some point? Maybe.dddddddddddd But right now were not focused on going through an expansion process." While the league may not be expanding franchises, expanding fan bases through outdoor games will continue. The commissioner acknowledged that though the number of outdoor games will drop from the record six played last season, the league will play more than one outdoor game in 2014-15. Bettman explained that the elevated number of games this past season stemmed from various circumstances. "This year we used those games in a variety of ways. Part of it was promoting us going into the Olympics, part of it was promoting it coming out. And doing it in New York [around the Super Bowl] with two games...we had to do lots of stuff. Our people did an extraordinary job, but we really taxed things to the limit. But also, interestingly enough, the Olympic break let us set up for more games. So, itll be more than one and less than six next season." As the league continues its tradition of adding excitement with outdoor games, the discussion of adding more excitement to the draft has also come up. "The GMs have asked us whether or not more teams should be eligible for the lottery result moving up more teams and whether or not the odds should be adjusted a little bit. Thats something were looking at," Bettman said. Bettman told LeBrun it would be premature to say if the adjustments would be made in time for the 2015 Draft, but said changes are being contemplated. "We havent finished a proposal thats been circulated... I think if were going to make an adjustment, itll be that more picks are selected by the lottery and we might smooth out the odds a little. But again, thats not something were at yet." The current NHL draft process gives every non-playoff team a chance at the first overall selection, with percentages declining from 25 percent. The 2014 NHL Draft will take place on June 27-28 in Philadelphia. ' ' '